Standard Liege vs Dender preview
In the Belgium Cup match between Standard Liege and Dender, the 1X2 probabilities show Standard Liege at 48%, while Dender stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 7% chance. Standard Liege's recent form is L-L-L-W-W-W, while Dender has been strong with W-W-W-W-W-W.
The expected goals indicate Standard Liege at 0.90 and Dender at 1.50, suggesting Dender may have the edge in scoring potential. The model predicts a 43% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance for both teams to score. However, Standard Liege's historical performance against Dender, with 4 wins in the last 8 encounters, could influence the match outcome.
Standard Liege vs Dender: model vs market
| Source | Standard Liege | Draw | Dender |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 29% | 50% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Published | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Edge | -46% | +9% | +37% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Standard Liege vs Dender odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Standard Liege, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | 1.69 | 1.33 | -0.35 |
| Draw | 3.61 | 4.53 | +0.92 |
| Dender | 4.50 | 7.06 | +2.56 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Standard Liege and Dender expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (Standard Liege / Dender)
- 0.86 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Standard Liege / Dender)
- 0.86 / 0.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Standard Liege vs Dender score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Standard Liege goals. Columns: Dender goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Standard Liege vs Dender goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Standard Liege vs Dender
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Standard Liege | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Dender | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Standard Liege or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Dender) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Standard Liege win by 2+ | 8% | 13.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Standard Liege and Dender recent form
Standard Liege
3W 0D 3L
Dender
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dender away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 6.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Standard Liege at home only, Dender away only.
Standard Liege vs Dender head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Standard Liege 4 · draws 3 · Dender 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | Dender | 0-1 | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-12-02 | Dender | 3-2 | Standard Liege | Belgium Cup |
| 2025-08-02 | Standard Liege | 1-1 | Dender | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-05-17 | Standard Liege | 0-0 | Dender | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-04-13 | Dender | 1-1 | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-01-26 | Standard Liege | 1-0 | Dender | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2024-09-13 | Dender | 0-2 | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2022-11-08 | Dender | 0-1 | Standard Liege | Cup |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
- KVC Westerlo vs Patro Eisden — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- SK Beveren vs Habay-la-Neuve 2026-10-16
- Sporting Hasselt v Cercle Brugge — match page 2026-10-16
- OH Leuven vs Francs Borains 2026-10-17
- Albert Quévy-Mons v Charleroi — match page 2026-10-17
- Heist vs Antwerp — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Club Brugge KV vs Lokeren-Temse 2026-10-17
- Zulte Waregem v Seraing United — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Standard Liege, previous: Standard Liege – Charleroi, 2026-10-11
- Dender, previous: Dender vs Club Brugge II: odds and pick