Sporting Hasselt vs Cercle Brugge preview
In the Belgium Cup match between Sporting Hasselt and Cercle Brugge, the 1X2 probabilities indicate Cercle Brugge has a 44% chance to win, compared to 33% for Sporting Hasselt. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 5% probability. Sporting Hasselt's expected goals stand at 2.42, while Cercle Brugge's is significantly lower at 1.22.
The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 65%. However, Cercle Brugge's recent form shows six games without a win, which could impact their performance. Sporting Hasselt has a mixed record, winning two of their last six matches, which may also affect the outcome.
Sporting Hasselt vs Cercle Brugge: model vs market
| Source | Sporting Hasselt | Draw | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Market | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Published | 32% | 22% | 46% |
| Edge | +41% | -3% | -38% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.77, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sporting Hasselt vs Cercle Brugge odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cercle Brugge, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Hasselt | 3.67 | 4.22 | +0.55 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.95 | +0.20 |
| Cercle Brugge | 1.81 | 1.65 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sporting Hasselt and Cercle Brugge expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.64
- Attack rating (Sporting Hasselt / Cercle Brugge)
- 1.12 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Sporting Hasselt / Cercle Brugge)
- 0.89 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting Hasselt vs Cercle Brugge score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting Hasselt goals. Columns: Cercle Brugge goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting Hasselt vs Cercle Brugge goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting Hasselt vs Cercle Brugge
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Hasselt | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Cercle Brugge | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting Hasselt or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Cercle Brugge) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cercle Brugge win by 2+ | 7% | 14.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 10% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sporting Hasselt and Cercle Brugge recent form
Sporting Hasselt
3W 0D 3L
Cercle Brugge
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Sporting Hasselt, previous: Excelsior Virton v Sporting Hasselt analysis
- Cercle Brugge, previous: Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht: odds and pick