Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG preview
Atletico Paranaense hosts Atletico-MG with a 45% probability of winning according to the model. The expected goals suggest a close match, with Atletico Paranaense at 1.77 and Atletico-MG at 1.44. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the 62% chance of Over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
However, the recent form shows Atletico Paranaense with mixed results (W-D-L-D-W-D) and Atletico-MG winning three of their last five matches (W-D-L-W-W-L). Additionally, Atletico-MG has a stronger head-to-head record, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters. This could influence the outcome, making the match unpredictable despite the numbers.
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Paranaense | Draw | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 25% | 30% |
| Market | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Published | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Edge | 0% | -4% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.44.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Paranaense, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.95 | 2.08 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.20 | -0.10 |
| Atletico-MG | 3.78 | 3.60 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Atletico Paranaense / Atletico-MG)
- 1.31 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Atletico Paranaense / Atletico-MG)
- 1.20 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Paranaense goals. Columns: Atletico-MG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Paranaense | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Atletico-MG | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Paranaense or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico-MG) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Paranaense win by 2+ | 24% | 4.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG recent form
Atletico Paranaense
2W 3D 1L
Atletico-MG
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Paranaense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-1
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.79
- Goals against / match
- 0.79
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Atletico-MG away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-8
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Paranaense at home only, Atletico-MG away only.
Injuries & availability
Atletico Paranaense
-
Claudinho
muscle injury
-
F. Aguirre
yellow cards
-
G. Benavidez
muscle injury
Atletico-MG
-
Everson
foot injury
-
Gustavo Scarpa
inactive
-
M. Cassierra
injury
-
Reinier
injury
-
Ruan Tressoldi
muscle injury
-
Vitor Hugo
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atletico Paranaense 3 · draws 1 · Atletico-MG 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Atletico-MG | 2-1 | Atletico Paranaense | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-12-08 | Atletico-MG | 1-0 | Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| 2024-11-16 | Atletico Paranaense | 1-0 | Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| 2023-09-02 | Atletico Paranaense | 1-1 | Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| 2023-05-23 | Atletico-MG | 2-1 | Atletico Paranaense | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| 2023-04-30 | Atletico-MG | 2-1 | Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| 2023-04-19 | Atletico Paranaense | 2-1 | Atletico-MG | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| 2022-08-07 | Atletico-MG | 2-3 | Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| 2022-04-17 | Atletico Paranaense | 0-1 | Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| 2021-12-16 | Atletico Paranaense | 1-2 | Atletico-MG | Copa Do Brasil |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
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- RB Bragantino vs Mirassol 2026-10-07
- Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc — team news & stats 2026-10-07
- Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama — team news & stats 2026-10-07
- Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo — match page 2026-10-08
- Santos vs Flamengo — team news & stats 2026-10-08
- Palmeiras vs Bahia 2026-10-09
- Fluminense v Coritiba — match page 2026-10-09