Internacional vs Corinthians preview
In the Brazil Serie A fixture between Internacional and Corinthians, the model gives Internacional a 44% chance to win, while Corinthians has a 27% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Internacional, with a 14% chance of occurring. The market suggests a 37% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance for both teams to score.
Recent form shows Internacional with one win in their last six matches, while Corinthians has lost five of their last six games. This could affect the outcome, as both teams are struggling. The head-to-head record favors Internacional slightly, with 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 wins for Corinthians in their last 10 encounters. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Internacional vs Corinthians: model vs market
| Source | Internacional | Draw | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Published | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Edge | +4% | +2% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Internacional below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Internacional vs Corinthians odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Internacional, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 2.10 | 2.20 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.25 | +0.05 |
| Corinthians | 3.44 | 3.36 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Internacional and Corinthians expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Internacional / Corinthians)
- 0.82 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Internacional / Corinthians)
- 1.11 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Internacional vs Corinthians score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Internacional goals. Columns: Corinthians goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Internacional vs Corinthians goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Internacional vs Corinthians
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Internacional | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Corinthians | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.33 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Internacional or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Corinthians) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Internacional win by 2+ | 23% | 4.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Internacional and Corinthians recent form
Internacional
1W 1D 4L
Corinthians
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Internacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-6
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Corinthians away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-5
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Internacional at home only, Corinthians away only.
Injuries & availability
Internacional
-
B. Arhin
hamstring injury
-
Calebe
ankle injury
-
Kayky
ankle injury
-
S. Rochet
lower back injury
Corinthians
-
Andre Ramalho
health problems
-
Kayke
knee injury
-
Z. Labyad
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Internacional vs Corinthians head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Internacional 4 · draws 4 · Corinthians 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Corinthians | 2-1 | Internacional | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-08-02 | Internacional | 2-0 | Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-04-05 | Corinthians | 0-1 | Internacional | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-10-01 | Internacional | 1-1 | Corinthians | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-05-03 | Corinthians | 4-2 | Internacional | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-10-05 | Corinthians | 2-2 | Internacional | Serie A |
| 2024-06-20 | Internacional | 1-0 | Corinthians | Serie A |
| 2023-12-02 | Corinthians | 1-2 | Internacional | Serie A |
| 2023-08-05 | Internacional | 2-2 | Corinthians | Serie A |
| 2022-09-04 | Corinthians | 2-2 | Internacional | Serie A |
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