Palmeiras vs Bahia preview
Palmeiras hosts Bahia with a 60% probability to win according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The expected goals show Palmeiras at 1.66 and Bahia at 0.81, suggesting a tight match, likely leading to a scoreline of 1-0, which has a 13% chance.
However, both teams to score stands at 46%, indicating that Bahia could find the net. Palmeiras' recent form includes three wins in their last five matches, while Bahia has been strong with four wins in their last five. This recent performance could challenge the expected outcome, making the match less predictable.
Palmeiras vs Bahia: model vs market
| Source | Palmeiras | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Edge | -4% | +4% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.81.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.58, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Palmeiras vs Bahia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Palmeiras, 32 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 1.60 | 1.55 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.20 | +0.30 |
| Bahia | 5.25 | 5.50 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Palmeiras and Bahia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Palmeiras / Bahia)
- 1.08 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Palmeiras / Bahia)
- 0.61 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Palmeiras vs Bahia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Palmeiras goals. Columns: Bahia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Palmeiras vs Bahia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Palmeiras vs Bahia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palmeiras | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Bahia | 17% | 5.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Palmeiras or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Bahia) | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Palmeiras win by 2+ | 32% | 3.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Palmeiras and Bahia recent form
Palmeiras
3W 3D 0L
Bahia
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Palmeiras at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-1
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 16 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bahia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-4
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 10 penalties (70%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Palmeiras at home only, Bahia away only.
Palmeiras vs Bahia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Palmeiras 6 · draws 1 · Bahia 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Bahia | 1-2 | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-09-28 | Bahia | 1-0 | Palmeiras | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-27 | Palmeiras | 0-1 | Bahia | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-11-20 | Bahia | 1-2 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 2024-07-07 | Palmeiras | 2-0 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 2023-10-28 | Palmeiras | 1-0 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 2023-06-22 | Bahia | 1-0 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 2021-10-13 | Bahia | 0-0 | Palmeiras | Serie A |
| 2021-06-27 | Palmeiras | 3-2 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 2020-12-12 | Palmeiras | 3-0 | Bahia | Serie A |
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