Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc preview
Vitoria faces Chapecoense-sc with a 53% probability of winning according to the model 1X2. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which suggests a low-scoring match. However, the data shows a 46% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 52% likelihood for both teams to score, indicating that a higher-scoring game is possible.
Vitoria's recent form includes four losses in their last six matches, while Chapecoense-sc has had a mixed run with two wins in their last six. The head-to-head record is close, with Vitoria winning four times and Chapecoense-sc three times in their last ten encounters. The confidence grade is C, meaning there is some uncertainty in the predictions.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc: model vs market
| Source | Vitoria | Draw | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 29% | 28% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Published | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Edge | -14% | +4% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vitoria, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | 1.67 | 1.67 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.80 | +0.20 |
| Chapecoense-sc | 5.00 | 5.04 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Vitoria / Chapecoense-sc)
- 0.73 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Vitoria / Chapecoense-sc)
- 1.17 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vitoria goals. Columns: Chapecoense-sc goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Chapecoense-sc | 21% | 4.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vitoria or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Chapecoense-sc) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitoria win by 2+ | 21% | 4.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc recent form
Vitoria
1W 1D 4L
Chapecoense-sc
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vitoria at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-4
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Chapecoense-sc away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-9
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 0.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 3 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Vitoria at home only, Chapecoense-sc away only.
Injuries & availability
Vitoria
-
Anderson
knee injury
-
Baralhas
broken leg
-
Camutanga
broken leg
-
Dudu
back injury
-
Edu
achilles tendon injury
-
Fabiano
knee injury
-
Nathan Mendes
knee injury
-
Ramon
leg injury
-
Riccieli
calf injury
-
Walace
hamstring injury
Chapecoense-sc
-
Bruno Tubarao
hamstring injury
-
Heitor
hamstring injury
-
Max Alves
back injury
-
Rafael Carvalheira
knee injury
-
Robert Conceicao
knee injury
-
Vinicius Balieiro
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Vitoria 4 · draws 3 · Chapecoense-sc 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Chapecoense-sc | 1-1 | Vitoria | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-11-25 | Chapecoense-sc | 3-1 | Vitoria | Serie B |
| 2023-07-24 | Vitoria | 1-0 | Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
| 2021-01-17 | Vitoria | 0-0 | Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
| 2020-10-17 | Chapecoense-sc | 1-1 | Vitoria | Serie B |
| 2018-10-14 | Chapecoense-sc | 0-1 | Vitoria | Serie A |
| 2018-06-06 | Vitoria | 1-0 | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| 2017-11-16 | Chapecoense-sc | 2-1 | Vitoria | Serie A |
| 2017-07-22 | Vitoria | 1-2 | Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| 2016-10-01 | Chapecoense-sc | 1-4 | Vitoria | Serie A |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
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- RB Bragantino vs Mirassol 2026-10-07
- Remo v Gremio — match page 2026-10-07
- Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama — team news & stats 2026-10-07
- Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo — match page 2026-10-08
- Santos vs Flamengo — team news & stats 2026-10-08
- Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG 2026-10-08
- Palmeiras vs Bahia 2026-10-09