Remo vs Gremio Prediction & Betting Tips 07/10/2026

Remo vs Gremio preview

In the Brazil Serie A fixture between Remo and Gremio, the model gives Remo a 40% chance to win, while Gremio has a 31% chance and a 29% chance for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Remo, with an 11% probability. However, the match could swing if Gremio improves their recent form, which shows two wins in their last six matches.

The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 42%, and there is a 49% chance for both teams to score. Expected goals indicate Remo at 1.24 and Gremio at 1.10, suggesting a close contest. The confidence grade is C, as these probabilities are blended with market odds, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.

Remo vs Gremio: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Remo	Draw	Gremio
Model	38%	31%	31%
Market	41%	28%	31%
Published	40%	29%	31%
Edge	-3%	+3%	0%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Remo vs Gremio odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Remo, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-15.

Opened 2.50Now 2.30 -0.20

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Remo	2.50	2.30	-0.20
Draw	3.22	3.34	+0.12
Gremio	2.69	2.98	+0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Remo and Gremio expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.24Remo

1.10Gremio

Total expected goals: 2.35
Attack rating (Remo / Gremio): 0.83 / 0.87
Defence rating (Remo / Gremio): 1.20 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Remo vs Gremio score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.9% 9.2% 5.8% 2.1% 0.8% 1 10.6% 14.4% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 2 7.4% 8.2% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 3 3.1% 3.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Remo goals. Columns: Gremio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Remo vs Gremio goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 42%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Remo vs Gremio

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Remo	40%	2.50
	Draw	29%	3.49
	Gremio	31%	3.19
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42%	2.40
	Under 2.5	58%	1.71
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.04
	No	51%	1.96
Double chance	1X (Remo or draw)	69%	1.46
	12 (either side)	71%	1.40
	X2 (draw or Gremio)	60%	1.67
Handicap -1	Remo win by 2+	17%	5.78
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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Remo and Gremio recent form

Remo 0W 1D 5L

Gremio 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Remo at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-5-6
Win rate: 21%
Goals for / match: 1.29
Goals against / match: 1.36
Clean sheets: 2 of 14

They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gremio away

Record (W-D-L): 0-4-10
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.57
Goals against / match: 1.57
Clean sheets: 2 of 14

They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Remo at home only, Gremio away only.