Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo preview
Cruzeiro faces Sao Paulo with a 51% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 12% probability. However, the match could see more goals, as the market indicates a 46% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score.
Cruzeiro's expected goals stand at 1.63, while Sao Paulo's are lower at 0.89. Recent form shows Cruzeiro with two wins in their last six matches, while Sao Paulo has a mixed record with two wins in their last six as well. The confidence grade is C, reflecting that while Cruzeiro has a better chance, the outcome remains uncertain.
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo: model vs market
| Source | Cruzeiro | Draw | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.89.
- The market prices Cruzeiro below the model: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cruzeiro, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1.80 | 1.85 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.50 | +0.04 |
| Sao Paulo | 4.33 | 4.00 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Cruzeiro / Sao Paulo)
- 1.20 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Cruzeiro / Sao Paulo)
- 1.02 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cruzeiro goals. Columns: Sao Paulo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruzeiro | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Sao Paulo | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.06 |
| No | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cruzeiro or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Sao Paulo) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruzeiro win by 2+ | 30% | 3.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo recent form
Cruzeiro
2W 1D 3L
Sao Paulo
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cruzeiro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-9
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cruzeiro at home only, Sao Paulo away only.
Injuries & availability
Cruzeiro
-
Gabriel Pec
broken leg
-
Kenji
ankle injury
-
L. Romero
calf injury
-
L. Sinisterra
muscle injury
-
N. Villarreal
ankle injury
Sao Paulo
-
Buta
knee injury
-
D. Duarte
knee injury
-
Lucas Moura
achilles tendon injury
-
Lucca Marques
jaw injury
-
N. Bosshardt
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cruzeiro 3 · draws 3 · Sao Paulo 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Sao Paulo | 4-1 | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-08-31 | Cruzeiro | 1-0 | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-13 | Sao Paulo | 1-1 | Cruzeiro | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-01-16 | Cruzeiro | 1-1 | Sao Paulo | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-09-15 | Cruzeiro | 0-1 | Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| 2024-06-02 | Sao Paulo | 2-0 | Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 2023-11-02 | Sao Paulo | 1-0 | Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 2023-06-25 | Cruzeiro | 1-0 | Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| 2019-10-17 | Cruzeiro | 1-0 | Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| 2019-06-02 | Sao Paulo | 1-1 | Cruzeiro | Serie A |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Internacional v Corinthians — match page 2026-10-07
- RB Bragantino vs Mirassol 2026-10-07
- Remo v Gremio — match page 2026-10-07
- Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc — team news & stats 2026-10-07
- Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama — team news & stats 2026-10-07
- Santos vs Flamengo — team news & stats 2026-10-08
- Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG 2026-10-08
- Palmeiras vs Bahia 2026-10-09