RB Bragantino vs Mirassol preview
RB Bragantino faces Mirassol with a 49% chance of winning, compared to Mirassol's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. Both teams to score stands at 46%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 39%.
RB Bragantino's recent form shows they have struggled, with four losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Mirassol has shown better form, with three wins and two draws in their last five. This discrepancy in form could influence the match outcome, making the predicted scoreline less certain.
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol: model vs market
| Source | RB Bragantino | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Edge | -13% | +6% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on RB Bragantino, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino | 1.75 | 1.80 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.70 | +0.12 |
| Mirassol | 4.50 | 4.25 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
RB Bragantino and Mirassol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (RB Bragantino / Mirassol)
- 0.78 / 0.95
- Defence rating (RB Bragantino / Mirassol)
- 1.01 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RB Bragantino goals. Columns: Mirassol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RB Bragantino vs Mirassol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RB Bragantino | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Mirassol | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RB Bragantino or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Mirassol) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | RB Bragantino win by 2+ | 18% | 5.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
RB Bragantino and Mirassol recent form
RB Bragantino
1W 1D 4L
Mirassol
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
RB Bragantino at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-5
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mirassol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-8
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: RB Bragantino at home only, Mirassol away only.
Injuries & availability
RB Bragantino
-
Alix Vinicius
injury
-
Davi Gomes
knee injury
-
I. Sosa
yellow cards
-
Rodriguinho
inactive
Mirassol
-
Jose Aldo
muscle injury
-
Negueba
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: RB Bragantino 4 · draws 4 · Mirassol 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Mirassol | 2-1 | RB Bragantino | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-04-23 | RB Bragantino | 1-1 | Mirassol | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2026-04-05 | Mirassol | 0-1 | RB Bragantino | Brazil Serie A |
| 2026-01-21 | Mirassol | 0-0 | RB Bragantino | Paulista - A1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Mirassol | 1-1 | RB Bragantino | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-05-05 | RB Bragantino | 1-0 | Mirassol | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-02-20 | RB Bragantino | 3-0 | Mirassol | Paulista - A1 |
| 2023-02-11 | RB Bragantino | 0-0 | Mirassol | Paulista - A1 |
| 2022-01-27 | Mirassol | 3-1 | RB Bragantino | Paulista - A1 |
| 2021-04-17 | RB Bragantino | 2-1 | Mirassol | Paulista - A1 |
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