Santos vs Flamengo preview
Santos faces Flamengo in the Brazil Serie A, with Flamengo holding a 48% chance to win according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, suggesting a close match. However, Santos has shown strong recent form with four wins in their last six games, which could challenge Flamengo's dominance.
Both teams to score has a probability of 52%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides. Over 2.5 goals stands at 45%, which is lower than the expectation for a high-scoring match. With expected goals of 1.17 for Santos and 1.33 for Flamengo, the match could be tight, but Flamengo's recent unbeaten streak may give them the edge.
Santos vs Flamengo: model vs market
| Source | Santos | Draw | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| Published | 25% | 27% | 48% |
| Edge | +8% | +4% | -12% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Santos vs Flamengo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Flamengo, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 3.88 | 4.05 | +0.17 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.65 | +0.15 |
| Flamengo | 1.86 | 1.82 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Santos and Flamengo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Santos / Flamengo)
- 1.19 / 1.36
- Defence rating (Santos / Flamengo)
- 0.92 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Santos vs Flamengo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Santos goals. Columns: Flamengo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Santos vs Flamengo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Santos vs Flamengo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos | 25% | 3.98 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Flamengo | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Santos or draw) | 52% | 1.93 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Flamengo) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Flamengo win by 2+ | 18% | 5.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Santos and Flamengo recent form
Santos
5W 0D 1L
Flamengo
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Santos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-4
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Flamengo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 18 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Santos at home only, Flamengo away only.
Injuries & availability
Santos
-
Arthur Melo
injury
-
Gabriel Brazao
shoulder injury
-
Neymar
thigh injury
-
Vinicius Lira
knee injury
Flamengo
-
Ayrton Lucas
thigh injury
-
Evertton Araujo
thigh injury
-
G. de Arrascaeta
wrist injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Santos vs Flamengo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Santos 3 · draws 0 · Flamengo 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Flamengo | 3-1 | Santos | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-11-09 | Flamengo | 3-2 | Santos | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-07-16 | Santos | 1-0 | Flamengo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-11-01 | Flamengo | 1-2 | Santos | Serie A |
| 2023-06-25 | Santos | 2-3 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 2022-10-26 | Flamengo | 3-2 | Santos | Serie A |
| 2022-07-02 | Santos | 1-2 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 2021-12-06 | Flamengo | 0-1 | Santos | Serie A |
| 2021-08-28 | Santos | 0-4 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 2020-12-13 | Flamengo | 4-1 | Santos | Serie A |
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