Fluminense vs Coritiba Prediction & Betting Tips 09/10/2026

Fluminense vs Coritiba preview

Fluminense faces Coritiba with a strong probability of 66% to win according to the model 1X2. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expectation of Over 2.5 goals at 73%. Fluminense has shown solid recent form, winning four of their last six matches, while Coritiba has struggled, recording only two wins in their last six.

However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Coritiba's recent performance includes a win and a draw, suggesting they can be competitive. Additionally, while both teams to score is at 62%, Coritiba's expected goals of only 1.08 could limit their scoring chances.

Fluminense vs Coritiba: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Fluminense	Draw	Coritiba
Model	72%	17%	12%
Market	64%	22%	14%
Published	66%	21%	14%
Edge	+8%	-6%	-3%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.08.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Fluminense below the model: +8.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Fluminense vs Coritiba odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fluminense, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 1.51Now 1.47 -0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Fluminense	1.51	1.47	-0.04
Draw	3.80	4.20	+0.40
Coritiba	6.50	6.55	+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fluminense and Coritiba expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.74Fluminense

1.08Coritiba

Total expected goals: 3.82
Attack rating (Fluminense / Coritiba): 1.22 / 1.08
Defence rating (Fluminense / Coritiba): 0.94 / 1.48

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fluminense vs Coritiba score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1 5.4% 7.1% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 2 8.2% 8.9% 4.8% 1.7% 0.6% 3 7.5% 8.1% 4.4% 1.6% 0.5% 4+ 10.1% 10.8% 5.8% 2.1% 0.7%

Rows: Fluminense goals. Columns: Coritiba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fluminense vs Coritiba goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 73%

Over 3.5 53%

Both teams to score: 62%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fluminense vs Coritiba

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Fluminense	66%	1.53
	Draw	21%	4.80
	Coritiba	14%	7.35
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	73%	1.36
	Under 2.5	27%	3.77
Both teams to score	Yes	62%	1.60
	No	38%	2.66
Double chance	1X (Fluminense or draw)	86%	1.16
	12 (either side)	79%	1.26
	X2 (draw or Coritiba)	34%	2.90
Handicap -1	Fluminense win by 2+	52%	1.93
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Fluminense and Coritiba recent form

Fluminense 4W 1D 1L

Coritiba 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fluminense at home

Record (W-D-L): 10-3-1
Win rate: 71%
Goals for / match: 1.71
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 4 of 14

They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Coritiba away

Record (W-D-L): 5-4-5
Win rate: 36%
Goals for / match: 1.29
Goals against / match: 1.71
Clean sheets: 4 of 14

They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Fluminense at home only, Coritiba away only.

Fluminense vs Coritiba head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Fluminense 4 · draws 4 · Coritiba 2.

40% 40% 20%

FluminenseDrawsCoritiba

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-04-04	Coritiba	1-1	Fluminense	Brazil Serie A
2023-11-26	Fluminense	2-1	Coritiba	Serie A
2023-07-24	Coritiba	2-0	Fluminense	Serie A
2022-08-20	Fluminense	5-2	Coritiba	Serie A
2022-05-01	Coritiba	3-2	Fluminense	Serie A
2021-01-20	Coritiba	3-3	Fluminense	Serie A
2020-09-28	Fluminense	4-0	Coritiba	Serie A
2017-11-09	Fluminense	2-2	Coritiba	Serie A
2017-07-16	Coritiba	1-2	Fluminense	Serie A
2016-10-23	Coritiba	1-1	Fluminense	Serie A

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

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Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc — team news & stats 2026-10-07
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama — team news & stats 2026-10-07
Cruzeiro v Sao Paulo — match page 2026-10-08
Santos vs Flamengo — team news & stats 2026-10-08
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG 2026-10-08
Palmeiras vs Bahia 2026-10-09

Prediction snapshot Fluminense to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Fluminense