Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama preview
In the Brazil Serie A match between Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama, the key number is Vasco DA Gama's 42% probability to win according to the model 1X2. This suggests they have a stronger chance than Botafogo, who sit at 30%. However, Botafogo's recent form shows they have struggled, with four losses in their last six matches.
The expected goals also highlight Vasco DA Gama's advantage, with 1.64 expected goals compared to Botafogo's 0.81. While the market suggests a 44% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score, Botafogo's low scoring form could lead to a different outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama: model vs market
| Source | Botafogo | Draw | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 27% | 56% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Published | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Edge | -17% | -1% | +18% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vasco DA Gama below the model: +18.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vasco DA Gama, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 2.55 | 2.75 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.40 | +0.15 |
| Vasco DA Gama | 2.67 | 2.49 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (Botafogo / Vasco DA Gama)
- 0.83 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Botafogo / Vasco DA Gama)
- 1.19 / 0.65
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Botafogo goals. Columns: Vasco DA Gama goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo | 30% | 3.33 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Vasco DA Gama | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Botafogo or draw) | 58% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Vasco DA Gama) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasco DA Gama win by 2+ | 31% | 3.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Botafogo and Vasco DA Gama recent form
Botafogo
1W 2D 3L
Vasco DA Gama
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Botafogo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-3
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasco DA Gama away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-7
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.77
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Botafogo at home only, Vasco DA Gama away only.
Injuries & availability
Botafogo
-
J. Barrera
ankle injury
-
K. Barria
inactive
-
Kaio Pantaleao
knee injury
-
Matheus Martins
lacking match fitness
Vasco DA Gama
-
A. Gomez
yellow cards
-
Brenner
knee injury
-
Mateus Carvalho
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Botafogo 4 · draws 3 · Vasco DA Gama 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Vasco DA Gama | 1-2 | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2026-02-08 | Vasco DA Gama | 2-0 | Botafogo | Carioca - 1 |
| 2025-11-05 | Botafogo | 3-0 | Vasco DA Gama | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-09-12 | Botafogo | 1-1 | Vasco DA Gama | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2025-08-28 | Vasco DA Gama | 1-1 | Botafogo | Copa Do Brasil |
| 2025-07-12 | Vasco DA Gama | 0-2 | Botafogo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-02-23 | Vasco DA Gama | 1-0 | Botafogo | Carioca - 1 |
| 2024-11-06 | Botafogo | 3-0 | Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| 2024-06-29 | Vasco DA Gama | 1-1 | Botafogo | Serie A |
| 2024-02-18 | Botafogo | 2-4 | Vasco DA Gama | Carioca - 1 |
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