America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture between America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC, the model gives Fortaleza EC a 50% chance to win, compared to America Mineiro's 22%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% probability. America Mineiro's recent form shows four losses in their last five matches, while Fortaleza EC has a stronger record with three wins in their last five games.
The expected goals suggest America Mineiro will struggle to score, with only 0.75 expected goals, while Fortaleza EC is projected to score 1.40. The chances of Over 2.5 goals are at 36%, and both teams to score is at 41%. A surprise result could occur if America Mineiro improves their performance significantly.
America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC: model vs market
| Source | America Mineiro | Draw | Fortaleza EC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 30% | 51% |
| Market | 24% | 27% | 50% |
| Published | 22% | 28% | 50% |
| Edge | -5% | +3% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fortaleza EC, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| America Mineiro | 3.42 | 3.90 | +0.48 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.45 | +0.15 |
| Fortaleza EC | 2.05 | 1.86 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.15
- Attack rating (America Mineiro / Fortaleza EC)
- 0.65 / 1.09
- Defence rating (America Mineiro / Fortaleza EC)
- 1.35 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: America Mineiro goals. Columns: Fortaleza EC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America Mineiro | 22% | 4.46 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Fortaleza EC | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.44 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (America Mineiro or draw) | 50% | 2.00 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Fortaleza EC) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win by 2+ | 26% | 3.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC recent form
America Mineiro
1W 0D 5L
Fortaleza EC
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
America Mineiro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-9
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 4 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza EC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: America Mineiro at home only, Fortaleza EC away only.
America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: America Mineiro 3 · draws 0 · Fortaleza EC 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Fortaleza EC | 0-3 | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B |
| 2023-10-08 | Fortaleza EC | 3-2 | America Mineiro | Serie A |
| 2023-08-31 | Fortaleza EC | 2-1 | America Mineiro | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2023-08-24 | America Mineiro | 1-3 | Fortaleza EC | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2023-05-20 | America Mineiro | 2-1 | Fortaleza EC | Serie A |
| 2022-10-15 | America Mineiro | 1-2 | Fortaleza EC | Serie A |
| 2022-06-19 | Fortaleza EC | 1-0 | America Mineiro | Serie A |
| 2021-10-31 | America Mineiro | 2-1 | Fortaleza EC | Serie A |
| 2021-07-07 | Fortaleza EC | 4-0 | America Mineiro | Serie A |
| 2016-07-29 | Fortaleza EC | 4-1 | America Mineiro | Copa Do Brasil |
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