Ponte Preta vs Juventude preview
In the Brazil Serie B fixture between Ponte Preta and Juventude, the model indicates a strong likelihood of Juventude winning with a 71% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Juventude's expected goals of 1.80 compared to Ponte Preta's 0.45.
However, Ponte Preta's recent form shows they have lost four of their last six matches, which could impact their performance. Additionally, while the market suggests a lower chance of Over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams to score at 31%, unexpected events such as red cards or early goals could change the dynamics of the match.
Ponte Preta vs Juventude: model vs market
| Source | Ponte Preta | Draw | Juventude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8% | 23% | 69% |
| Market | 10% | 19% | 71% |
| Published | 9% | 20% | 71% |
| Edge | -2% | +4% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ponte Preta vs Juventude odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventude, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | 11.00 | 9.30 | -1.70 |
| Draw | 5.10 | 4.90 | -0.20 |
| Juventude | 1.25 | 1.30 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ponte Preta and Juventude expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Ponte Preta / Juventude)
- 0.46 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Ponte Preta / Juventude)
- 1.79 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ponte Preta vs Juventude score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ponte Preta goals. Columns: Juventude goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ponte Preta vs Juventude goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ponte Preta vs Juventude
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ponte Preta | 9% | 10.62 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.04 | |
| Juventude | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.19 |
| No | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ponte Preta or draw) | 29% | 3.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventude) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventude win by 2+ | 43% | 2.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ponte Preta and Juventude recent form
Ponte Preta
1W 0D 5L
Juventude
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ponte Preta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-9
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 3 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Juventude away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-5
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.87
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 15
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 21 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ponte Preta at home only, Juventude away only.
Ponte Preta vs Juventude head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Ponte Preta 1 · draws 2 · Juventude 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Juventude | 3-0 | Ponte Preta | Brazil Serie B |
| 2023-11-18 | Juventude | 0-0 | Ponte Preta | Serie B |
| 2023-07-19 | Ponte Preta | 0-0 | Juventude | Serie B |
| 2020-12-30 | Juventude | 2-1 | Ponte Preta | Serie B |
| 2020-10-04 | Ponte Preta | 1-3 | Juventude | Serie B |
| 2018-11-09 | Juventude | 0-1 | Ponte Preta | Serie B |
| 2018-07-24 | Ponte Preta | 0-1 | Juventude | Serie B |
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