Vila Nova vs Cuiaba preview
Vila Nova hosts Cuiaba in the Brazil Serie B with a 45% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 14% probability. Vila Nova's expected goals stand at 1.36, while Cuiaba's is lower at 0.83. This suggests that Vila Nova may have the upper hand in creating scoring opportunities.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score has a 43% probability, indicating that Cuiaba could find the net. Additionally, Vila Nova's recent form shows some inconsistency with one loss in their last five matches. This could impact their performance, making the outcome less predictable.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba: model vs market
| Source | Vila Nova | Draw | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 44% | 31% | 26% |
| Published | 45% | 31% | 25% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vila Nova below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vila Nova, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | 1.91 | 2.10 | +0.19 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.00 | -0.15 |
| Cuiaba | 4.12 | 3.54 | -0.58 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vila Nova and Cuiaba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.18
- Attack rating (Vila Nova / Cuiaba)
- 1.13 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Vila Nova / Cuiaba)
- 0.72 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vila Nova goals. Columns: Cuiaba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vila Nova vs Cuiaba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Cuiaba | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.33 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vila Nova or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Cuiaba) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win by 2+ | 24% | 4.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vila Nova and Cuiaba recent form
Vila Nova
4W 1D 1L
Cuiaba
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vila Nova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-2-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.07
- Goals against / match
- 0.73
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Cuiaba away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-5
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Vila Nova at home only, Cuiaba away only.
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Vila Nova 3 · draws 2 · Cuiaba 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Cuiaba | 1-0 | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-09-24 | Vila Nova | 2-2 | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-05-27 | Cuiaba | 1-0 | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B |
| 2024-05-11 | Cuiaba | 4-2 | Vila Nova | Copa Verde |
| 2024-04-17 | Vila Nova | 2-0 | Cuiaba | Copa Verde |
| 2023-03-22 | Cuiaba | 1-1 | Vila Nova | Copa Verde |
| 2023-03-15 | Vila Nova | 0-2 | Cuiaba | Copa Verde |
| 2021-02-08 | Vila Nova | 3-0 | Cuiaba | Copa Verde |
| 2021-02-05 | Cuiaba | 1-0 | Vila Nova | Copa Verde |
| 2019-11-30 | Cuiaba | 1-2 | Vila Nova | Serie B |
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