Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP preview
Operario-PR faces Botafogo SP with a 48% chance of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, supported by a 60% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score. Operario-PR has shown better recent form with two wins in their last five matches, while Botafogo SP has lost three of their last five.
However, the head-to-head record shows a competitive history, with Operario-PR winning 2, Botafogo SP winning 3, and 5 matches ending in a draw over the last 10 encounters. This could influence the match outcome, making it less predictable despite the statistical edge for Operario-PR. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP: model vs market
| Source | Operario-PR | Draw | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 26% |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | +11% | -5% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Operario-PR below the model: +11.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Operario-PR, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR | 1.86 | 2.05 | +0.19 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.25 | -0.15 |
| Botafogo SP | 4.05 | 3.50 | -0.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Operario-PR and Botafogo SP expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Operario-PR / Botafogo SP)
- 1.26 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Operario-PR / Botafogo SP)
- 1.30 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Operario-PR goals. Columns: Botafogo SP goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Operario-PR | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Botafogo SP | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Operario-PR or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Botafogo SP) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Operario-PR win by 2+ | 34% | 2.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Operario-PR and Botafogo SP recent form
Operario-PR
3W 2D 1L
Botafogo SP
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Operario-PR at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-3
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.47
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo SP away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-7
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Operario-PR at home only, Botafogo SP away only.
Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Operario-PR 2 · draws 5 · Botafogo SP 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Botafogo SP | 2-1 | Operario-PR | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-09-18 | Botafogo SP | 1-1 | Operario-PR | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-05-17 | Operario-PR | 3-0 | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B |
| 2024-10-13 | Botafogo SP | 0-0 | Operario-PR | Serie B |
| 2024-06-22 | Operario-PR | 0-1 | Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| 2021-01-29 | Botafogo SP | 0-1 | Operario-PR | Serie B |
| 2020-10-31 | Operario-PR | 0-0 | Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| 2019-09-24 | Botafogo SP | 1-1 | Operario-PR | Serie B |
| 2019-05-25 | Operario-PR | 0-2 | Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| 2018-07-28 | Botafogo SP | 2-2 | Operario-PR | Serie C |
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