Sport Recife vs São Bernardo preview
In the Brazil Serie B match between Sport Recife and São Bernardo, the model gives Sport Recife a 49% chance to win, while São Bernardo has a 25% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The model also indicates a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score.
Sport Recife's recent form shows three wins and three losses, while São Bernardo has four wins, one draw, and one loss. The expected goals are 1.49 for Sport Recife and 1.37 for São Bernardo. The confidence grade is C, meaning the probabilities are blended with market odds, and there is potential for unexpected outcomes.
Sport Recife vs São Bernardo: model vs market
| Source | Sport Recife | Draw | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | -14% | +2% | +12% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sport Recife vs São Bernardo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sport Recife, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | 1.85 | 1.75 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.64 | +0.19 |
| São Bernardo | 3.97 | 4.25 | +0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sport Recife and São Bernardo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Sport Recife / São Bernardo)
- 1.29 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Sport Recife / São Bernardo)
- 1.18 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sport Recife vs São Bernardo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sport Recife goals. Columns: São Bernardo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sport Recife vs São Bernardo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sport Recife vs São Bernardo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Recife | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| São Bernardo | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sport Recife or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or São Bernardo) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Recife win by 2+ | 19% | 5.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sport Recife and São Bernardo recent form
Sport Recife
3W 0D 3L
São Bernardo
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sport Recife at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-7-1
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
São Bernardo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-4
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sport Recife at home only, São Bernardo away only.
Sport Recife vs São Bernardo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sport Recife 0 · draws 1 · São Bernardo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | São Bernardo | 0-0 | Sport Recife | Brazil Serie B |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Goias v Athletic Club — match page 2026-10-06
- Ponte Preta vs Juventude 2026-10-07
- Avai vs Londrina — team news & stats 2026-10-07
- Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP 2026-10-07
- America Mineiro v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-10-07
- Vila Nova v Cuiaba — match page 2026-10-07
- CRB vs Atletico Goianiense 2026-10-07
- Ceara vs Criciuma — team news & stats 2026-10-08