Avai vs Londrina preview
Avai faces Londrina in the Brazil Serie B, with a 42% probability of an Avai win according to the model 1X2. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, but the match could see different outcomes if either team improves their recent form. Avai has lost five of their last six matches, while Londrina has won two of their last three.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 40%, and both teams to score is at 47%. Expected goals suggest Avai will score 1.18 and Londrina 1.09. The head-to-head record shows Avai with five wins in their last nine encounters, which may influence the match outcome. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Avai vs Londrina: model vs market
| Source | Avai | Draw | Londrina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Published | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Avai vs Londrina odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Avai, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avai | 1.95 | 2.10 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.11 | -0.19 |
| Londrina | 3.71 | 3.50 | -0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Avai and Londrina expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (Avai / Londrina)
- 0.75 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Avai / Londrina)
- 1.17 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Avai vs Londrina score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Avai goals. Columns: Londrina goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Avai vs Londrina goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Avai vs Londrina
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avai | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Londrina | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Avai or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Londrina) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Avai win by 2+ | 16% | 6.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Avai and Londrina recent form
Avai
0W 1D 5L
Londrina
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Avai at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Londrina away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-10
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Avai at home only, Londrina away only.
Avai vs Londrina head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Avai 5 · draws 3 · Londrina 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Londrina | 3-2 | Avai | Brazil Serie B |
| 2023-10-15 | Londrina | 1-1 | Avai | Serie B |
| 2023-06-24 | Avai | 0-0 | Londrina | Serie B |
| 2021-09-28 | Avai | 2-0 | Londrina | Serie B |
| 2021-06-30 | Londrina | 1-3 | Avai | Serie B |
| 2018-11-03 | Avai | 1-1 | Londrina | Serie B |
| 2018-07-12 | Londrina | 1-2 | Avai | Serie B |
| 2016-11-19 | Londrina | 0-1 | Avai | Serie B |
| 2016-07-27 | Avai | 1-0 | Londrina | Serie B |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Sport Recife vs São Bernardo 2026-10-06
- Goias v Athletic Club — match page 2026-10-06
- Ponte Preta vs Juventude 2026-10-07
- Operario-PR vs Botafogo SP 2026-10-07
- America Mineiro v Fortaleza EC — match page 2026-10-07
- Vila Nova v Cuiaba — match page 2026-10-07
- CRB vs Atletico Goianiense 2026-10-07
- Ceara vs Criciuma — team news & stats 2026-10-08