Goias vs Athletic Club preview
The fixture between Goias and Athletic Club shows a 48% probability for Goias to win in the 1X2 market, compared to 24% for Athletic Club and 28% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Goias, with a low confidence grade of C indicating some uncertainty.
Both teams to score stands at 55%, while Over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance. Goias has struggled recently with three losses in their last six matches, while Athletic Club has a mixed form with two draws and two wins in the same period. The expected goals are closely matched, with Goias at 1.30 and Athletic Club at 1.32, suggesting a competitive match.
Goias vs Athletic Club: model vs market
| Source | Goias | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | 52% | 28% | 21% |
| Published | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Edge | -16% | +1% | +15% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Goias vs Athletic Club odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Goias, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goias | 1.70 | 1.80 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.35 | -0.15 |
| Athletic Club | 5.00 | 4.50 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Goias and Athletic Club expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Goias / Athletic Club)
- 0.83 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Goias / Athletic Club)
- 1.12 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Goias vs Athletic Club score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Goias goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Goias vs Athletic Club goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Goias vs Athletic Club
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Goias | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Athletic Club | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Goias or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Athletic Club) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Goias win by 2+ | 16% | 6.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Goias and Athletic Club recent form
Goias
2W 0D 4L
Athletic Club
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Goias at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-1-6
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-4
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Goias at home only, Athletic Club away only.
Goias vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Goias 0 · draws 2 · Athletic Club 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Athletic Club | 1-1 | Goias | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-10-11 | Athletic Club | 1-1 | Goias | Brazil Serie B |
| 2025-06-24 | Goias | 1-2 | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B |
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