Ceara vs Criciuma preview
Ceara faces Criciuma with a 42% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time. Ceara's expected goals stand at 1.51, while Criciuma's is lower at 0.98. This suggests Ceara may have the upper hand in creating chances.
However, both teams to score is at 50%, indicating a reasonable chance for Criciuma to find the net. Recent form shows Ceara with a mixed record of W-D-W-D-L-W, while Criciuma has won three of their last six matches. With a confidence grade of C, the probabilities are influenced by market odds, making the outcome less certain.
Ceara vs Criciuma: model vs market
| Source | Ceara | Draw | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Published | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Edge | +8% | -2% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.98.
- The market prices Ceara below the model: +8.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ceara vs Criciuma odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ceara, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara | 2.27 | 2.31 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.08 | -0.02 |
| Criciuma | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ceara and Criciuma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Ceara / Criciuma)
- 1.13 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Ceara / Criciuma)
- 1.07 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ceara vs Criciuma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ceara goals. Columns: Criciuma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ceara vs Criciuma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ceara vs Criciuma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Criciuma | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ceara or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Criciuma) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ceara win by 2+ | 25% | 3.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ceara and Criciuma recent form
Ceara
3W 2D 1L
Criciuma
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ceara at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Criciuma away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-5
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ceara at home only, Criciuma away only.
Ceara vs Criciuma head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Ceara 5 · draws 3 · Criciuma 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Criciuma | 1-1 | Ceara | Brazil Serie B |
| 2023-09-02 | Ceara | 1-0 | Criciuma | Serie B |
| 2023-05-21 | Criciuma | 1-2 | Ceara | Serie B |
| 2017-11-18 | Criciuma | 1-1 | Ceara | Serie B |
| 2017-08-02 | Ceara | 3-1 | Criciuma | Serie B |
| 2016-11-08 | Criciuma | 2-3 | Ceara | Serie B |
| 2016-07-16 | Ceara | 1-0 | Criciuma | Serie B |
| 2015-10-17 | Criciuma | 3-0 | Ceara | Serie B |
| 2015-07-10 | Ceara | 1-1 | Criciuma | Serie B |
| 2012-10-06 | Criciuma | 2-1 | Ceara | Serie B |
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