Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino preview
Nautico Recife faces Novorizontino in Brazil Serie B, with the model showing a 42% chance for Novorizontino to win. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Novorizontino's stronger expected goals of 1.56 compared to Nautico Recife's 1.15.
Both teams to score has a 55% probability, indicating a good chance for goals from both sides. However, Nautico Recife’s recent form shows inconsistency with only two wins in their last five matches. If Nautico can improve their performance, they could disrupt Novorizontino's momentum, making the outcome less predictable.
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino: model vs market
| Source | Nautico Recife | Draw | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Published | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Novorizontino below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Novorizontino, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | 2.62 | 3.00 | +0.38 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.30 | -0.06 |
| Novorizontino | 2.50 | 2.24 | -0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nautico Recife and Novorizontino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Nautico Recife / Novorizontino)
- 1.14 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Nautico Recife / Novorizontino)
- 1.15 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nautico Recife goals. Columns: Novorizontino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 30% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Novorizontino | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nautico Recife or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Novorizontino) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win by 2+ | 24% | 4.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nautico Recife and Novorizontino recent form
Nautico Recife
2W 2D 2L
Novorizontino
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nautico Recife at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-4
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Novorizontino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nautico Recife at home only, Novorizontino away only.
Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Nautico Recife 1 · draws 1 · Novorizontino 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Novorizontino | 2-2 | Nautico Recife | Brazil Serie B |
| 2022-10-15 | Novorizontino | 6-0 | Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| 2022-07-02 | Nautico Recife | 3-1 | Novorizontino | Serie B |
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