Brazil Serie B · Matchday 31

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife

· Estadio Joaquim Portugal, Sao Joao del-Rei· Referee Joao Vitor Gobi

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Athletic Club to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Athletic ClubDrawSport Recife

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAthletic ClubDrawSport Recife
Model52%24%24%
Market36%30%34%
Published40%28%32%
Edge+16%-6%-10%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.33.
  • The market prices Athletic Club below the model: +16.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.46Now 2.59 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Athletic Club2.462.59+0.13
Draw3.203.10-0.10
Sport Recife2.742.68-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Athletic Club and Sport Recife expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.99Athletic Club
1.33Sport Recife
Total expected goals
3.31
Attack rating (Athletic Club / Sport Recife)
1.24 / 1.22
Defence rating (Athletic Club / Sport Recife)
1.14 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 3.9% 3.2% 1.4% 0.6% 1 6.3% 10.5% 6.4% 2.8% 1.2% 2 7.2% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 1.2% 3 4.8% 6.3% 4.2% 1.8% 0.8% 4+ 3.7% 5.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6%

Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Sport Recife goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Athletic Club vs Sport Recife

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Athletic Club40%2.52
Draw28%3.54
Sport Recife32%3.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.55
Under 2.536%2.80
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.55
No36%2.80
Double chance1X (Athletic Club or draw)68%1.47
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Sport Recife)60%1.66
Handicap -1Athletic Club win by 2+31%3.24
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Athletic Club and Sport Recife recent form

Athletic Club 2W 2D 2L
Sport Recife 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Athletic Club at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-5-4
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
0.93
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Sport Recife away

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-7
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
0.93
Goals against / match
1.13
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Athletic Club at home only, Sport Recife away only.

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Athletic Club 1 · draws 1 · Sport Recife 0.

Athletic ClubDrawsSport Recife
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-11Sport Recife1-1Athletic ClubBrazil Serie B
2026-03-18Sport Recife1-3Athletic ClubCopa Do Brasil

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