Brazil Serie B · Matchday 31

Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife

· Estadio Castelão, Fortaleza· Referee Kleber Ariel Goncalves da Silva

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Fortaleza EC to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Fortaleza ECDrawNautico Recife

Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFortaleza ECDrawNautico Recife
Model54%26%20%
Market53%26%21%
Published53%26%21%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.94.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fortaleza EC, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.79Now 1.75 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fortaleza EC1.791.75-0.04
Draw3.483.52+0.04
Nautico Recife4.454.46+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69Fortaleza EC
0.94Nautico Recife
Total expected goals
2.62
Attack rating (Fortaleza EC / Nautico Recife)
1.11 / 1.14
Defence rating (Fortaleza EC / Nautico Recife)
0.86 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.4% 5.7% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 1 11.1% 12.6% 5.4% 1.7% 0.5% 2 10.3% 9.7% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 5.8% 5.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 3.6% 3.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Fortaleza EC goals. Columns: Nautico Recife goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fortaleza EC53%1.88
Draw26%3.80
Nautico Recife21%4.88
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.05
Under 2.551%1.95
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.97
No49%2.03
Double chance1X (Fortaleza EC or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Nautico Recife)47%2.13
Handicap -1Fortaleza EC win by 2+30%3.31
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fortaleza EC and Nautico Recife recent form

Fortaleza EC 3W 3D 0L
Nautico Recife 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fortaleza EC at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-5-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

Nautico Recife away

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-7
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.27
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Fortaleza EC at home only, Nautico Recife away only.

Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Fortaleza EC 4 · draws 1 · Nautico Recife 0.

Fortaleza ECDrawsNautico Recife
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-09Nautico Recife0-1Fortaleza ECBrazil Serie B
2023-02-26Fortaleza EC2-1Nautico RecifeCopa do Nordeste
2022-03-26Fortaleza EC2-0Nautico RecifeCopa do Nordeste
2022-02-12Nautico Recife2-2Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste
2020-03-14Nautico Recife0-3Fortaleza ECCopa do Nordeste

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