Brazil Serie B · Matchday 31

Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta

· Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba· Referee Michelangelo Martins De Almeida Junior

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Cuiaba to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CuiabaDrawPonte Preta

Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCuiabaDrawPonte Preta
Model84%12%4%
Market81%13%6%
Published82%13%5%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 0.46.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Cuiaba below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cuiaba, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-01.

Opened 1.15Now 1.17 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cuiaba1.151.17+0.02
Draw7.087.05-0.03
Ponte Preta15.0015.96+0.96

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cuiaba and Ponte Preta expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.70Cuiaba
0.46Ponte Preta
Total expected goals
3.16
Attack rating (Cuiaba / Ponte Preta)
1.13 / 0.49
Defence rating (Cuiaba / Ponte Preta)
0.98 / 1.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1 11.0% 5.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 2 15.5% 7.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 3 14.0% 6.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 18.1% 8.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0%

Rows: Cuiaba goals. Columns: Ponte Preta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
35%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cuiaba82%1.23
Draw13%7.63
Ponte Preta5%18.75
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.57
Both teams to scoreYes35%2.88
No65%1.53
Double chance1X (Cuiaba or draw)95%1.06
12 (either side)87%1.15
X2 (draw or Ponte Preta)18%5.42
Handicap -1Cuiaba win by 2+64%1.55
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cuiaba and Ponte Preta recent form

Cuiaba 3W 1D 2L
Ponte Preta 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cuiaba at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-7-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.13
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
8 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Ponte Preta away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-14
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.47
Goals against / match
2.73
Clean sheets
0 of 15
  • They have won 3 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Cuiaba at home only, Ponte Preta away only.

Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Cuiaba 2 · draws 2 · Ponte Preta 2.

CuiabaDrawsPonte Preta
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-09Ponte Preta1-2CuiabaBrazil Serie B
2021-01-11Ponte Preta2-2CuiabaSerie B
2020-10-09Cuiaba2-1Ponte PretaSerie B
2019-09-28Ponte Preta3-0CuiabaSerie B
2019-06-01Cuiaba1-3Ponte PretaSerie B
2017-03-02Ponte Preta1-1CuiabaCopa Do Brasil

Other Matchday 31 fixtures