Brazil Serie B · Matchday 31

Avai vs Ceara

· Estádio da Ressacada, Florianopolis· Referee Alex Gomes Stefano

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Avai to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AvaiDrawCeara

Avai vs Ceara: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAvaiDrawCeara
Model35%29%36%
Market36%31%33%
Published36%30%34%
Edge-1%-2%+4%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Avai vs Ceara odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Avai, 11 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 2.62Now 2.55 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Avai2.622.55-0.08
Draw3.122.97-0.15
Ceara2.622.81+0.19

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Avai and Ceara expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.30Avai
1.33Ceara
Total expected goals
2.63
Attack rating (Avai / Ceara)
0.82 / 1.13
Defence rating (Avai / Ceara)
1.23 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Avai vs Ceara score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.5% 8.4% 6.4% 2.8% 1.3% 1 8.1% 13.7% 8.3% 3.7% 1.6% 2 6.1% 8.1% 5.4% 2.4% 1.1% 3 2.6% 3.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 4+ 1.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Avai goals. Columns: Ceara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Avai vs Ceara goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Avai vs Ceara

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Avai36%2.79
Draw30%3.28
Ceara34%2.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.05
Under 2.551%1.95
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.83
No45%2.21
Double chance1X (Avai or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)70%1.44
X2 (draw or Ceara)64%1.56
Handicap -1Avai win by 2+16%6.28
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Avai and Ceara recent form

Avai 0W 1D 5L
Ceara 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Avai at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-5
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.07
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
5 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ceara away

Record (W-D-L)
2-6-7
Win rate
13%
Goals for / match
0.93
Goals against / match
1.47
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Avai at home only, Ceara away only.

Avai vs Ceara head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Avai 2 · draws 2 · Ceara 6.

AvaiDrawsCeara
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-10Ceara2-1AvaiBrazil Serie B
2024-11-03Ceara2-0AvaiSerie B
2024-07-20Avai0-1CearaSerie B
2023-10-22Avai1-0CearaSerie B
2023-06-28Ceara0-0AvaiSerie B
2022-11-08Avai2-0CearaSerie A
2022-07-20Ceara1-0AvaiSerie A
2019-10-13Ceara1-0AvaiSerie A
2019-05-27Avai1-2CearaSerie A
2016-09-04Ceara0-0AvaiSerie B

Other Matchday 31 fixtures