Brazil Serie B · Matchday 31

São Bernardo vs CRB

· Estadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do Campo· Referee De Moraes Silva, Matheus

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was CRB to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
São BernardoDrawCRB

São Bernardo vs CRB: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSão BernardoDrawCRB
Model41%30%29%
Market33%29%38%
Published35%29%36%
Edge+8%+2%-9%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

São Bernardo vs CRB odds movement

Median bookmaker price on CRB, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 2.94Now 2.43 -0.51
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
São Bernardo2.302.80+0.50
Draw3.383.20-0.18
CRB2.942.43-0.51

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

São Bernardo and CRB expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29São Bernardo
1.05CRB
Total expected goals
2.33
Attack rating (São Bernardo / CRB)
1.06 / 1.22
Defence rating (São Bernardo / CRB)
0.89 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

São Bernardo vs CRB score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.0% 8.8% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6% 1 11.2% 14.4% 6.8% 2.4% 0.8% 2 8.0% 8.4% 4.4% 1.5% 0.5% 3 3.4% 3.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: São Bernardo goals. Columns: CRB goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

São Bernardo vs CRB goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for São Bernardo vs CRB

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2São Bernardo35%2.86
Draw29%3.41
CRB36%2.80
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.42
Under 2.559%1.70
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.07
No52%1.93
Double chance1X (São Bernardo or draw)64%1.56
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or CRB)65%1.54
Handicap -1CRB win by 2+11%8.70
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

São Bernardo and CRB recent form

São Bernardo 3W 1D 2L
CRB 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

São Bernardo at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-6-6
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.07
Goals against / match
1.13
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

CRB away

Record (W-D-L)
6-3-6
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.13
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: São Bernardo at home only, CRB away only.

São Bernardo vs CRB head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: São Bernardo 1 · draws 0 · CRB 0.

São BernardoDrawsCRB
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-07CRB2-3São BernardoBrazil Serie B

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