Brazil Serie B · Matchday 31

Juventude vs Operario-PR

· Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias Sul· Referee Julio Cesar Pfleger

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Juventude to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
JuventudeDrawOperario-PR

Juventude vs Operario-PR: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJuventudeDrawOperario-PR
Model42%30%28%
Market47%30%23%
Published46%30%24%
Edge-5%0%+6%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Juventude vs Operario-PR odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Juventude, 8 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.75Now 1.96 +0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Juventude1.751.96+0.21
Draw3.343.10-0.24
Operario-PR4.824.08-0.74

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Juventude and Operario-PR expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Juventude
1.07Operario-PR
Total expected goals
2.41
Attack rating (Juventude / Operario-PR)
0.90 / 1.39
Defence rating (Juventude / Operario-PR)
0.80 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Juventude vs Operario-PR score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 8.3% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 1 10.8% 14.1% 6.9% 2.4% 0.8% 2 8.1% 8.7% 4.6% 1.6% 0.6% 3 3.6% 3.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 1.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Juventude goals. Columns: Operario-PR goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Juventude vs Operario-PR goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Juventude vs Operario-PR

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Juventude46%2.18
Draw30%3.35
Operario-PR24%4.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.30
Under 2.557%1.77
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.01
No50%1.99
Double chance1X (Juventude or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Operario-PR)54%1.85
Handicap -1Juventude win by 2+20%4.98
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Juventude and Operario-PR recent form

Juventude 2W 2D 2L
Operario-PR 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Juventude at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-4-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.27
Goals against / match
0.40
Clean sheets
11 of 15
  • They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 20 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Operario-PR away

Record (W-D-L)
6-4-5
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Juventude at home only, Operario-PR away only.

Juventude vs Operario-PR head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Juventude 1 · draws 0 · Operario-PR 2.

JuventudeDrawsOperario-PR
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-05Operario-PR2-1JuventudeBrazil Serie B
2020-12-22Operario-PR3-0JuventudeSerie B
2020-09-29Juventude1-0Operario-PRSerie B

Other Matchday 31 fixtures