Brazil Serie B · Matchday 31

Novorizontino vs Goias

· Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, New Horizons· Referee Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Novorizontino to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NovorizontinoDrawGoias

Novorizontino vs Goias: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNovorizontinoDrawGoias
Model58%27%16%
Market58%25%18%
Published58%25%17%
Edge0%+2%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.74.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Novorizontino vs Goias odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Novorizontino, 9 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 1.63Now 1.60 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Novorizontino1.631.60-0.03
Draw3.603.75+0.15
Goias5.255.20-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Novorizontino and Goias expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.64Novorizontino
0.74Goias
Total expected goals
2.37
Attack rating (Novorizontino / Goias)
1.32 / 0.93
Defence rating (Novorizontino / Goias)
0.83 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Novorizontino vs Goias score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.4% 5.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1 14.1% 12.4% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.5% 9.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 3 6.8% 5.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 4.0% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Novorizontino goals. Columns: Goias goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Novorizontino vs Goias goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Novorizontino vs Goias

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Novorizontino58%1.73
Draw25%3.98
Goias17%5.82
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.36
Under 2.558%1.74
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.32
No57%1.76
Double chance1X (Novorizontino or draw)83%1.21
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Goias)42%2.36
Handicap -1Novorizontino win by 2+32%3.08
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Novorizontino and Goias recent form

Novorizontino 3W 2D 1L
Goias 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Novorizontino at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-4-3
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.53
Goals against / match
0.93
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Goias away

Record (W-D-L)
4-5-6
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.07
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Novorizontino at home only, Goias away only.

Novorizontino vs Goias head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Novorizontino 3 · draws 0 · Goias 2.

NovorizontinoDrawsGoias
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-10Goias0-4NovorizontinoBrazil Serie B
2025-11-16Goias1-0NovorizontinoBrazil Serie B
2025-07-23Novorizontino1-0GoiasBrazil Serie B
2024-11-24Goias1-0NovorizontinoSerie B
2024-08-04Novorizontino2-1GoiasSerie B

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