Brazil Serie B · Matchday 31

Londrina vs Criciuma

· Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias, Londrina· Referee Jonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Londrina to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LondrinaDrawCriciuma

Londrina vs Criciuma: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLondrinaDrawCriciuma
Model54%27%20%
Market32%30%39%
Published37%29%34%
Edge+22%-3%-19%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.93.
  • The market prices Londrina below the model: +22.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Londrina vs Criciuma odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Londrina, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 2.71Now 2.92 +0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Londrina2.712.92+0.21
Draw3.123.10-0.02
Criciuma2.522.38-0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Londrina and Criciuma expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.67Londrina
0.93Criciuma
Total expected goals
2.60
Attack rating (Londrina / Criciuma)
1.15 / 0.87
Defence rating (Londrina / Criciuma)
1.11 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Londrina vs Criciuma score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.6% 5.7% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 1 11.3% 12.7% 5.3% 1.6% 0.5% 2 10.4% 9.6% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 3 5.8% 5.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 3.5% 3.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Londrina goals. Columns: Criciuma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Londrina vs Criciuma goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Londrina vs Criciuma

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Londrina37%2.69
Draw29%3.46
Criciuma34%2.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.08
Under 2.552%1.93
Both teams to scoreYes50%1.99
No50%2.01
Double chance1X (Londrina or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Criciuma)63%1.59
Handicap -1Londrina win by 2+30%3.33
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Londrina and Criciuma recent form

Londrina 2W 1D 3L
Criciuma 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Londrina at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-5-6
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.53
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

Criciuma away

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-5
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
0.93
Goals against / match
1.21
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Londrina at home only, Criciuma away only.

Londrina vs Criciuma head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Londrina 1 · draws 4 · Criciuma 5.

LondrinaDrawsCriciuma
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-06Criciuma1-0LondrinaBrazil Serie B
2023-08-12Criciuma2-0LondrinaSerie B
2023-05-01Londrina1-1CriciumaSerie B
2022-07-30Londrina1-1CriciumaSerie B
2022-04-14Criciuma1-0LondrinaSerie B
2020-10-11Criciuma2-1LondrinaSerie C
2020-08-10Londrina0-0CriciumaSerie C
2019-11-12Criciuma2-0LondrinaSerie B
2019-08-16Londrina1-1CriciumaSerie B
2018-11-06Londrina4-2CriciumaSerie B

Other Matchday 31 fixtures