Brazil Serie B · Matchday 31

Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro

· Estadio Antonio Accioly, Goiania· Referee Marianna Nanni Batalha

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Atletico Goianiense to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico GoianienseDrawAmerica Mineiro

Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico GoianienseDrawAmerica Mineiro
Model74%20%6%
Market73%18%9%
Published73%18%9%
Edge+1%+2%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.45.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Goianiense, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.41Now 1.27 -0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico Goianiense1.411.27-0.14
Draw4.305.25+0.95
America Mineiro7.5010.00+2.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico Goianiense and America Mineiro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.03Atletico Goianiense
0.45America Mineiro
Total expected goals
2.48
Attack rating (Atletico Goianiense / America Mineiro)
1.18 / 0.69
Defence rating (Atletico Goianiense / America Mineiro)
0.68 / 1.30

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 3.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1 16.2% 8.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 2 17.2% 7.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 3 11.6% 5.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 9.4% 4.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Atletico Goianiense goals. Columns: America Mineiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
32%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico Goianiense73%1.36
Draw18%5.51
America Mineiro9%11.69
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.22
Under 2.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes32%3.09
No68%1.48
Double chance1X (Atletico Goianiense or draw)91%1.09
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or America Mineiro)27%3.74
Handicap -1Atletico Goianiense win by 2+49%2.05
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico Goianiense and America Mineiro recent form

Atletico Goianiense 4W 1D 1L
America Mineiro 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico Goianiense at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-4-3
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

America Mineiro away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-12
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
1.93
Clean sheets
1 of 15
  • They have won 4 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 30 matches.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Goianiense at home only, America Mineiro away only.

Atletico Goianiense vs America Mineiro head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 3 · draws 5 · America Mineiro 2.

Atletico GoianienseDrawsAmerica Mineiro
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-08America Mineiro1-2Atletico GoianienseBrazil Serie B
2025-09-26Atletico Goianiense1-0America MineiroBrazil Serie B
2025-05-27America Mineiro2-1Atletico GoianienseBrazil Serie B
2022-11-13America Mineiro1-1Atletico GoianienseSerie A
2022-07-24Atletico Goianiense0-1America MineiroSerie A
2021-11-17America Mineiro0-0Atletico GoianienseSerie A
2021-08-01Atletico Goianiense1-1America MineiroSerie A
2019-10-25Atletico Goianiense2-2America MineiroSerie B
2019-07-26America Mineiro0-1Atletico GoianienseSerie B
2015-09-18Atletico Goianiense1-1America MineiroSerie B

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