Brazil Serie B · Matchday 31

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova

· Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto· Referee Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Botafogo SP to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Botafogo SPDrawVila Nova

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBotafogo SPDrawVila Nova
Model28%29%43%
Market39%31%31%
Published36%30%34%
Edge-11%-1%+12%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Botafogo SP, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-01.

Opened 2.40Now 2.40 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Botafogo SP2.402.40+0.00
Draw3.043.00-0.04
Vila Nova3.043.02-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Botafogo SP and Vila Nova expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.08Botafogo SP
1.38Vila Nova
Total expected goals
2.46
Attack rating (Botafogo SP / Vila Nova)
1.03 / 1.18
Defence rating (Botafogo SP / Vila Nova)
1.23 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.8% 10.5% 8.2% 3.8% 1.8% 1 7.9% 14.0% 8.8% 4.1% 1.9% 2 5.0% 6.9% 4.7% 2.2% 1.0% 3 1.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Botafogo SP goals. Columns: Vila Nova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Botafogo SP36%2.79
Draw30%3.28
Vila Nova34%2.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.24
Under 2.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.97
No49%2.03
Double chance1X (Botafogo SP or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)70%1.44
X2 (draw or Vila Nova)64%1.56
Handicap -1Botafogo SP win by 2+11%8.84
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Botafogo SP and Vila Nova recent form

Botafogo SP 1W 1D 4L
Vila Nova 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Botafogo SP at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-3-6
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vila Nova away

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-7
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Botafogo SP at home only, Vila Nova away only.

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Botafogo SP 3 · draws 1 · Vila Nova 5.

Botafogo SPDrawsVila Nova
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-08Vila Nova1-0Botafogo SPBrazil Serie B
2025-08-25Botafogo SP2-0Vila NovaBrazil Serie B
2025-04-20Vila Nova2-0Botafogo SPBrazil Serie B
2024-09-28Vila Nova1-1Botafogo SPSerie B
2024-06-16Botafogo SP1-0Vila NovaSerie B
2023-10-12Vila Nova3-1Botafogo SPSerie B
2023-06-24Botafogo SP0-3Vila NovaSerie B
2019-09-17Vila Nova0-2Botafogo SPSerie B
2019-05-18Botafogo SP0-1Vila NovaSerie B

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