Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan preview
In the match between Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan, the 1X2 probabilities show Beijing Guoan at 51%, while Henan Jianye sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Henan Jianye's recent form is poor, with 6 matches without a win, while Beijing Guoan has won 4 of their last 6 matches.
The model suggests a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score. However, if Henan Jianye can improve their attacking performance, they might disrupt these predictions. Their expected goals are 1.04, while Beijing Guoan has a higher expected goals figure of 1.67, indicating a potential challenge for the home side.
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan: model vs market
| Source | Henan Jianye | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Henan Jianye / Beijing Guoan)
- 0.86 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Henan Jianye / Beijing Guoan)
- 0.96 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Henan Jianye goals. Columns: Beijing Guoan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Henan Jianye | 22% | 4.45 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Beijing Guoan | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Henan Jianye or draw) | 49% | 2.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Beijing Guoan) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Beijing Guoan win by 2+ | 28% | 3.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan recent form
Henan Jianye
0W 5D 1L
Beijing Guoan
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Henan Jianye at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beijing Guoan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Henan Jianye at home only, Beijing Guoan away only.
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Henan Jianye 2 · draws 0 · Beijing Guoan 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Beijing Guoan | 1-2 | Henan Jianye | China Super League |
| 2025-09-12 | Henan Jianye | 2-0 | Beijing Guoan | China Super League |
| 2025-04-25 | Beijing Guoan | 1-0 | Henan Jianye | China Super League |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
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- Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing — team news & stats 2026-10-24
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- Sichuan Jiuniu v Shanghai Shenhua — match page 2026-10-24
- Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun 2026-10-24
- Chongqing Tongliang Long v Qingdao Jonoon — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Henan Jianye, previous: Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda analysis
- Beijing Guoan, previous: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island prediction