Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng preview
Wuhan Three Towns face Shandong Luneng with a 45% chance of winning compared to 30% for Shandong Luneng. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals tally of 1.77 for Wuhan and 1.41 for Shandong.
Both teams to score stands at 64%, suggesting a strong likelihood of goals from both sides. However, recent form shows Wuhan with 3 draws in their last 5 matches, while Shandong has 2 wins. This could impact the outcome, especially given their head-to-head record where Wuhan has not secured a win in the last 3 encounters.
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng: model vs market
| Source | Wuhan Three Towns | Draw | Shandong Luneng |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 25% | 40% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 25% | 40% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Wuhan Three Towns / Shandong Luneng)
- 0.99 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Wuhan Three Towns / Shandong Luneng)
- 0.99 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wuhan Three Towns goals. Columns: Shandong Luneng goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wuhan Three Towns | 34% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Shandong Luneng | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wuhan Three Towns or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Shandong Luneng) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shandong Luneng win by 2+ | 21% | 4.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng recent form
Wuhan Three Towns
1W 4D 1L
Shandong Luneng
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wuhan Three Towns at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shandong Luneng away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-7
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Wuhan Three Towns at home only, Shandong Luneng away only.
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Wuhan Three Towns 0 · draws 1 · Shandong Luneng 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Shandong Luneng | 3-3 | Wuhan Three Towns | China Super League |
| 2025-11-22 | Wuhan Three Towns | 1-5 | Shandong Luneng | China Super League |
| 2025-06-25 | Shandong Luneng | 3-1 | Wuhan Three Towns | China Super League |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
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- Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown 2026-10-24
- Sichuan Jiuniu v Shanghai Shenhua — match page 2026-10-24
- Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun 2026-10-24
- Chongqing Tongliang Long v Qingdao Jonoon — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Wuhan Three Towns, previous: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua: odds and pick
- Shandong Luneng, previous: Shandong Luneng v Hangzhou Greentown analysis