Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua preview
In the upcoming match between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a 46% chance of a win for Shanghai Shenhua compared to 32% for Sichuan Jiuniu. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% probability. Both teams have shown solid attacking potential, with expected goals of 1.87 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 2.24 for Shanghai Shenhua.
The high probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 76% indicate a strong likelihood of an entertaining match. However, Sichuan Jiuniu's recent form, with only 1 win in their last 6 matches, could impact their performance. If they fail to capitalize on home advantage, the expected outcome may shift.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua: model vs market
| Source | Sichuan Jiuniu | Draw | Shanghai Shenhua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 21% | 51% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 29% | 21% | 51% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.26
- Attack rating (Sichuan Jiuniu / Shanghai Shenhua)
- 0.88 / 1.56
- Defence rating (Sichuan Jiuniu / Shanghai Shenhua)
- 1.13 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sichuan Jiuniu goals. Columns: Shanghai Shenhua goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29% | 3.47 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.86 | |
| Shanghai Shenhua | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.29 |
| No | 23% | 4.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sichuan Jiuniu or draw) | 49% | 2.03 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Shanghai Shenhua) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shanghai Shenhua win by 2+ | 32% | 3.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sichuan Jiuniu and Shanghai Shenhua recent form
Sichuan Jiuniu
1W 3D 2L
Shanghai Shenhua
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sichuan Jiuniu at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-5
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Shanghai Shenhua away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-4
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sichuan Jiuniu at home only, Shanghai Shenhua away only.
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shanghai Shenhua head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sichuan Jiuniu 2 · draws 0 · Shanghai Shenhua 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Shanghai Shenhua | 1-2 | Sichuan Jiuniu | China Super League |
| 2025-10-31 | Shanghai Shenhua | 1-0 | Sichuan Jiuniu | China Super League |
| 2025-06-14 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 3-1 | Shanghai Shenhua | China Super League |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG 2026-10-24
- Henan Jianye v Beijing Guoan — match page 2026-10-24
- Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown 2026-10-24
- Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun 2026-10-24
- Chongqing Tongliang Long v Qingdao Jonoon — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Sichuan Jiuniu, previous: Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu: odds and pick
- Shanghai Shenhua, previous: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua: odds and pick