Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun preview
In the upcoming match between Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun, the 1X2 probabilities show Qingdao Youth Island at 54%, while Yunnan Yukun sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. The expected goals indicate Qingdao Youth Island at 2.30 and Yunnan Yukun at 1.52, suggesting a potentially high-scoring game.
With Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 71%, there is a strong likelihood of action in front of goal. However, Qingdao's recent form of L-D-D-W-D-D could impact their performance, while Yunnan Yukun's recent W-W-D-L-W shows better consistency. This contrast in form could lead to unexpected results.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun: model vs market
| Source | Qingdao Youth Island | Draw | Yunnan Yukun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.47.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.66
- Attack rating (Qingdao Youth Island / Yunnan Yukun)
- 0.80 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Qingdao Youth Island / Yunnan Yukun)
- 0.86 / 1.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Qingdao Youth Island goals. Columns: Yunnan Yukun goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Qingdao Youth Island | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Yunnan Yukun | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Qingdao Youth Island or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Yunnan Yukun) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Qingdao Youth Island win by 2+ | 33% | 3.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun recent form
Qingdao Youth Island
1W 4D 1L
Yunnan Yukun
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Qingdao Youth Island at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-8-1
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Yunnan Yukun away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-8
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.79
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Qingdao Youth Island at home only, Yunnan Yukun away only.
Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Qingdao Youth Island 1 · draws 1 · Yunnan Yukun 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Yunnan Yukun | 2-3 | Qingdao Youth Island | China Super League |
| 2025-11-02 | Yunnan Yukun | 1-0 | Qingdao Youth Island | China Super League |
| 2025-06-14 | Qingdao Youth Island | 0-0 | Yunnan Yukun | China Super League |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG 2026-10-24
- Henan Jianye v Beijing Guoan — match page 2026-10-24
- Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown 2026-10-24
- Sichuan Jiuniu v Shanghai Shenhua — match page 2026-10-24
- Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Chongqing Tongliang Long v Qingdao Jonoon — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Qingdao Youth Island, previous: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island prediction
- Yunnan Yukun, previous: Yunnan Yukun – Chongqing Tongliang Long, 2026-10-17