Updated

FNL · Matchday 12

Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Příbram

· Mestsky Stadion Ceska Lipa, Ceska Lipa

Alin prediction Příbram to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Arsenal Česká LípaDrawPříbram

Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Příbram preview

Arsenal Česká Lípa faces Příbram with a 32% chance of winning compared to Příbram's 42%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs at a 9% probability. Arsenal Česká Lípa has expected goals of 1.42, while Příbram has 1.65, indicating a slight edge for the visitors.

The match could see Over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. However, Arsenal Česká Lípa's recent form of L-L-D-L-W-W may impact their performance, while Příbram's form of L-W-D-L-D-W suggests they are more consistent. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Příbram: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceArsenal Česká LípaDrawPříbram
Model37%25%38%
Market———
Published37%25%38%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Arsenal Česká Lípa and Příbram expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.65Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.68Příbram
Total expected goals
3.33
Attack rating (Arsenal Česká Lípa / Příbram)
0.96 / 1.15
Defence rating (Arsenal Česká Lípa / Příbram)
1.18 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Příbram score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 2.8% 1.7% 1 4.9% 10.9% 8.3% 4.7% 2.9% 2 4.9% 8.2% 6.9% 3.9% 2.4% 3 2.7% 4.5% 3.8% 2.1% 1.3% 4+ 1.6% 2.7% 2.3% 1.3% 0.8%

Rows: Arsenal Česká Lípa goals. Columns: Příbram goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Příbram goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Arsenal Česká Lípa vs Příbram

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Arsenal Česká Lípa37%2.71
Draw25%4.02
Příbram38%2.61
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.55
Under 2.535%2.83
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.50
No33%3.01
Double chance1X (Arsenal Česká Lípa or draw)62%1.62
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Příbram)63%1.58
Handicap -1Příbram win by 2+20%5.00
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites
# Betting site Welcome offer Why it is here Visit
1 Mozzartbet 50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.
  • M-PESA Paybill 290059
  • Daily Jackpot
  • Live betting
Get offer
2 Betwinner First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • Live betting around the clock
  • 30+ markets on live events
Get offer
3 22Bet 100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.
  • M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits
  • Live in-play betting
  • Android and iOS app
Get offer
4 Melbet 200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.
  • 1,000+ events every day
  • 30+ markets on live events
  • 24/7 customer support
Get offer

Arsenal Česká Lípa and Příbram recent form

Arsenal Česká Lípa 2W 1D 3L
Příbram 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Arsenal Česká Lípa at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Příbram away

Record (W-D-L)
2-4-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal Česká Lípa at home only, Příbram away only.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Příbram to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Příbram