Updated

FNL · Matchday 12

Táborsko vs Třinec

· Stadion Kvapilova, Tabor

Alin prediction Táborsko to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TáborskoDrawTřinec

Táborsko vs Třinec preview

In the FNL fixture between Táborsko and Třinec, the 1X2 probabilities show Táborsko at 48%, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 10%. Táborsko has an expected goals figure of 1.65, while Třinec sits at 1.15. This suggests a competitive match, with Táborsko slightly favored to win.

However, Táborsko's recent form includes two losses, which could impact their performance. Třinec has also struggled, with three losses in their last five matches. The model indicates a 53% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score, but if either team fails to convert their chances, these outcomes could be affected.

Táborsko vs Třinec: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTáborskoDrawTřinec
Model46%25%29%
Market———
Published46%25%29%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.37.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Táborsko and Třinec expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.78Táborsko
1.37Třinec
Total expected goals
3.14
Attack rating (Táborsko / Třinec)
0.91 / 0.94
Defence rating (Táborsko / Třinec)
1.18 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Táborsko vs Třinec score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 4.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8% 1 6.6% 11.5% 7.2% 3.3% 1.5% 2 6.8% 9.3% 6.4% 2.9% 1.3% 3 4.0% 5.5% 3.8% 1.7% 0.8% 4+ 2.7% 3.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: Táborsko goals. Columns: Třinec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Táborsko vs Třinec goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Táborsko vs Třinec

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Táborsko46%2.17
Draw25%3.96
Třinec29%3.49
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.55
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.59
No37%2.70
Double chance1X (Táborsko or draw)71%1.40
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Třinec)54%1.86
Handicap -1Táborsko win by 2+26%3.91
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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Táborsko and Třinec recent form

Táborsko 0W 3D 3L
Třinec 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Táborsko at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Třinec away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-3
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.17
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Táborsko at home only, Třinec away only.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Táborsko to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Táborsko