Ústí nad Labem vs Karviná preview
In the upcoming match between Ústí nad Labem and Karviná, the 1X2 probabilities show Ústí nad Labem at 45%, while Karviná stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% chance of occurring. With expected goals of 1.82 for Ústí nad Labem and 1.46 for Karviná, there is a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 65%.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. Recent form shows Ústí nad Labem with mixed results, while Karviná has had a stronger run, winning 4 of their last 6 matches. This could influence the outcome, making it essential to consider both teams' current performances.
Ústí nad Labem vs Karviná: model vs market
| Source | Ústí nad Labem | Draw | Karviná |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ústí nad Labem and Karviná expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.29
- Attack rating (Ústí nad Labem / Karviná)
- 1.17 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Ústí nad Labem / Karviná)
- 0.97 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ústí nad Labem vs Karviná score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ústí nad Labem goals. Columns: Karviná goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ústí nad Labem vs Karviná goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ústí nad Labem vs Karviná
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ústí nad Labem | 38% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Karviná | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ústí nad Labem or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Karviná) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ústí nad Labem win by 2+ | 20% | 4.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Ústí nad Labem and Karviná recent form
Ústí nad Labem
2W 2D 2L
Karviná
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ústí nad Labem at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Karviná away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ústí nad Labem at home only, Karviná away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Dukla Praha vs Kladno — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Opava vs Baník Ostrava II 2026-10-23
- Táborsko v Třinec — match page 2026-10-23
- Vysočina Jihlava vs Vlašim — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Arsenal Česká Lípa v Příbram — match page 2026-10-24
- Hanácká vs Viktoria Žižkov — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Slavia Praha II vs Prostějov 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Ústí nad Labem, previous: Prostějov vs Ústí nad Labem prediction
- Karviná, previous: Karviná – Dukla Praha, 2026-10-16