Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC: model vs market
| Source | Al Ittihad | Draw | El Gouna FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 32% | 20% |
| Market | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| Published | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Ittihad, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ittihad | 2.30 | 1.85 | -0.45 |
| Draw | 2.62 | 2.99 | +0.37 |
| El Gouna FC | 3.60 | 4.55 | +0.95 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Ittihad and El Gouna FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.02
- Attack rating (Al Ittihad / El Gouna FC)
- 1.18 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Al Ittihad / El Gouna FC)
- 0.85 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Ittihad goals. Columns: El Gouna FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ittihad | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.25 | |
| El Gouna FC | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.57 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Ittihad or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or El Gouna FC) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ittihad win by 2+ | 23% | 4.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Al Ittihad and El Gouna FC recent form
Al Ittihad
3W 2D 1L
El Gouna FC
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Ittihad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
El Gouna FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Ittihad at home only, El Gouna FC away only.
Al Ittihad vs El Gouna FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al Ittihad 2 · draws 2 · El Gouna FC 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | El Gouna FC | 0-0 | Al Ittihad | Egypt Premier League |
| 2025-11-23 | Al Ittihad | 0-2 | El Gouna FC | Egypt Premier League |
| 2025-03-11 | El Gouna FC | 2-0 | Al Ittihad | Premier League |
| 2025-02-17 | Al Ittihad | 1-0 | El Gouna FC | Premier League |
| 2024-04-27 | El Gouna FC | 2-1 | Al Ittihad | Premier League |
| 2023-10-06 | Al Ittihad | 2-2 | El Gouna FC | Premier League |
| 2022-05-27 | El Gouna FC | 1-0 | Al Ittihad | Premier League |
| 2021-11-18 | Al Ittihad | 1-0 | El Gouna FC | Premier League |
| 2021-05-25 | Al Ittihad | 0-1 | El Gouna FC | Premier League |
| 2021-01-14 | El Gouna FC | 2-0 | Al Ittihad | Premier League |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Olympic El Qanah v AL Masry — match page 2026-10-11
- Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- El Mokawloon vs Masr 2026-10-12
- Future FC v Enppi — match page 2026-10-12
- Pyramids FC vs Ceramica Cleopatra — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla 2026-10-12
- National Bank of Egypt v El Geish — match page 2026-10-13
- Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol — team news & stats 2026-10-13
Before and after this match
- Al Ittihad, next: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad prediction
- El Gouna FC, next: El Gouna FC v Smouha SC analysis