Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham preview
In the upcoming match between Sheffield Utd and Wrexham, the 1X2 probabilities show Sheffield Utd at 40%, Wrexham at 32%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% chance. Sheffield Utd's expected goals stand at 1.70, while Wrexham’s is 1.21, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, Sheffield Utd's recent form is concerning, with 3 losses in their last 5 matches. Wrexham has had mixed results, including 2 wins in their last 5. Both teams to score is at 58%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 56%, suggesting that while Sheffield Utd may be favored, Wrexham's recent success against them could challenge these predictions.
Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham: model vs market
| Source | Sheffield Utd | Draw | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| Published | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.08.
- The market prices Sheffield Utd below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sheffield Utd, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 2.45 | 2.47 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.37 | +0.07 |
| Wrexham | 2.70 | 2.67 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sheffield Utd and Wrexham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Sheffield Utd / Wrexham)
- 1.03 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Sheffield Utd / Wrexham)
- 0.92 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sheffield Utd goals. Columns: Wrexham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheffield Utd | 41% | 2.44 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Wrexham | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.80 |
| No | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sheffield Utd or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Wrexham) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheffield Utd win by 2+ | 29% | 3.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sheffield Utd and Wrexham recent form
Sheffield Utd
2W 1D 3L
Wrexham
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sheffield Utd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Wrexham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sheffield Utd at home only, Wrexham away only.
Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sheffield Utd 0 · draws 0 · Wrexham 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Sheffield Utd | 1-2 | Wrexham | England Championship |
| 2025-12-26 | Wrexham | 5-3 | Sheffield Utd | England Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Stoke City vs Preston — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lincoln vs Birmingham 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-31
- Southampton vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Burnley vs Portsmouth 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
- Millwall vs Derby — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Sheffield Utd, previous: Sheffield Utd v Derby analysis
- Wrexham, previous: Blackburn – Wrexham, 2026-10-24