Lincoln vs Birmingham preview
In the Championship fixture between Lincoln and Birmingham, the 1X2 probabilities show Lincoln at 23%, a draw at 24%, and Birmingham leading with 53%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Birmingham's expected goals of 1.96 compared to Lincoln's 1.25.
Both teams to score stands at 62%, indicating a strong chance for goals from both sides. However, Lincoln's recent form, with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, could impact their performance. Birmingham, on the other hand, has been more consistent with 4 wins in their last 5 games, which may influence the outcome.
Lincoln vs Birmingham: model vs market
| Source | Lincoln | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Market | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Published | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Birmingham below our published probability: +2.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lincoln vs Birmingham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Birmingham, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 3.32 | 3.32 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.44 | +0.00 |
| Birmingham | 2.08 | 2.08 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lincoln and Birmingham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Lincoln / Birmingham)
- 1.01 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Lincoln / Birmingham)
- 1.35 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lincoln vs Birmingham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lincoln goals. Columns: Birmingham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lincoln vs Birmingham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lincoln vs Birmingham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lincoln | 27% | 3.72 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Birmingham | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.60 |
| No | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lincoln or draw) | 53% | 1.88 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Birmingham) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win by 2+ | 32% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lincoln and Birmingham recent form
Lincoln
2W 1D 3L
Birmingham
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lincoln at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Birmingham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lincoln at home only, Birmingham away only.
Lincoln vs Birmingham head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Lincoln 0 · draws 0 · Birmingham 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Birmingham | 2-1 | Lincoln | England FA Cup |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Stoke City vs Preston — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-31
- Southampton vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Burnley vs Portsmouth 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
- Millwall vs Derby — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bolton vs Bristol City 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Lincoln, previous: Lincoln vs Burnley prediction
- Birmingham, previous: Cardiff v Birmingham analysis