AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AFC Fylde	Draw	Atherton Collieries
Model	33%	22%	45%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	22%	45%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

AFC Fylde and Atherton Collieries expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.83AFC Fylde

2.13Atherton Collieries

Total expected goals: 3.96
Attack rating (AFC Fylde / Atherton Collieries): 1.09 / 1.17
Defence rating (AFC Fylde / Atherton Collieries): 1.22 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 3.3% 4.3% 3.1% 2.7% 1 2.7% 8.2% 7.9% 5.6% 4.9% 2 3.2% 6.8% 7.2% 5.1% 4.5% 3 2.0% 4.2% 4.4% 3.1% 2.7% 4+ 1.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.2% 1.9%

Rows: AFC Fylde goals. Columns: Atherton Collieries goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 76%

Over 3.5 56%

Both teams to score: 75%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AFC Fylde	33%	3.01
	Draw	22%	4.52
	Atherton Collieries	45%	2.24
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	76%	1.32
	Under 2.5	24%	4.10
Both teams to score	Yes	75%	1.34
	No	25%	3.96
Double chance	1X (AFC Fylde or draw)	55%	1.81
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or Atherton Collieries)	67%	1.50
Handicap -1	Atherton Collieries win by 2+	26%	3.81
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

AFC Fylde and Atherton Collieries recent form

AFC Fylde 1W 1D 2L

Atherton Collieries 4W 1D 1L

Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atherton Collieries away

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-0
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 2.50
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: AFC Fylde at home only, Atherton Collieries away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures

Bury vs Harrogate Town 2026-10-17
Southend vs Berkhamsted — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Hartlepool v Marine — match page 2026-10-17
Carlisle vs Tamworth — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Macclesfield vs Anstey Nomads 2026-10-17
Aldershot Town v Tadley Calleva — match page 2026-10-17
Barrow vs Gloucester City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town 2026-10-17

Before and after this match

Atherton Collieries, previous: Atherton Collieries v Trafford analysis