Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town

· Silverlake Stadium, Eastleigh

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Eastleigh to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
EastleighDrawBrentwood Town

Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEastleighDrawBrentwood Town
Model25%26%48%
Market77%15%8%
Published64%18%18%
Edge-51%+11%+40%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Eastleigh, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.17Now 1.17 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Eastleigh1.171.17+0.00
Draw5.855.85+0.00
Brentwood Town11.2511.25+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Eastleigh and Brentwood Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Eastleigh
1.70Brentwood Town
Total expected goals
2.89
Attack rating (Eastleigh / Brentwood Town)
0.78 / 1.21
Defence rating (Eastleigh / Brentwood Town)
0.94 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 8.4% 8.1% 4.6% 2.9% 1 5.5% 12.4% 9.6% 5.4% 3.4% 2 3.9% 6.7% 5.7% 3.2% 2.0% 3 1.5% 2.6% 2.2% 1.3% 0.8% 4+ 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Eastleigh goals. Columns: Brentwood Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Eastleigh64%1.57
Draw18%5.54
Brentwood Town18%5.53
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.81
Under 2.545%2.23
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.73
No42%2.38
Double chance1X (Eastleigh or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Brentwood Town)36%2.77
Handicap -1Eastleigh win by 2+11%9.37
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Eastleigh and Brentwood Town recent form

Eastleigh 1W 0D 2L
Brentwood Town 4W 1D 1L

Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Brentwood Town away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Eastleigh at home only, Brentwood Town away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures