Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Gateshead vs Stafford Rangers

· Gateshead International Stadium, Gateshead

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Gateshead to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GatesheadDrawStafford Rangers

Gateshead vs Stafford Rangers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGatesheadDrawStafford Rangers
Model36%29%35%
Market———
Published36%29%35%
Edge———

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Gateshead and Stafford Rangers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29Gateshead
1.28Stafford Rangers
Total expected goals
2.57
Attack rating (Gateshead / Stafford Rangers)
0.92 / 1.00
Defence rating (Gateshead / Stafford Rangers)
0.86 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gateshead vs Stafford Rangers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 8.5% 6.2% 2.7% 1.1% 1 8.6% 13.9% 8.1% 3.4% 1.5% 2 6.4% 8.2% 5.2% 2.2% 0.9% 3 2.8% 3.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 4+ 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Gateshead goals. Columns: Stafford Rangers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gateshead vs Stafford Rangers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gateshead vs Stafford Rangers

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gateshead36%2.80
Draw29%3.44
Stafford Rangers35%2.85
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.11
Under 2.553%1.90
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.86
No46%2.16
Double chance1X (Gateshead or draw)65%1.54
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Stafford Rangers)64%1.56
Handicap -1Gateshead win by 2+16%6.09
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gateshead and Stafford Rangers recent form

Gateshead 2W 1D 2L
Stafford Rangers 3W 1D 2L

Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Stafford Rangers away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Gateshead at home only, Stafford Rangers away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures

Before and after this match