Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Aldershot Town vs Tadley Calleva

· The Electrical Services Stadium, Aldershot

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Tadley Calleva to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Aldershot TownDrawTadley Calleva

Aldershot Town vs Tadley Calleva: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAldershot TownDrawTadley Calleva
Model28%23%48%
Market———
Published28%23%48%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.51.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Aldershot Town and Tadley Calleva expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51Aldershot Town
2.00Tadley Calleva
Total expected goals
3.51
Attack rating (Aldershot Town / Tadley Calleva)
1.02 / 1.22
Defence rating (Aldershot Town / Tadley Calleva)
1.10 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aldershot Town vs Tadley Calleva score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.9% 5.1% 6.0% 4.0% 3.2% 1 3.6% 9.9% 9.0% 6.0% 4.8% 2 3.4% 6.8% 6.8% 4.6% 3.6% 3 1.7% 3.4% 3.4% 2.3% 1.8% 4+ 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.0%

Rows: Aldershot Town goals. Columns: Tadley Calleva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aldershot Town vs Tadley Calleva goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aldershot Town vs Tadley Calleva

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aldershot Town28%3.54
Draw23%4.27
Tadley Calleva48%2.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.14
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.46
No32%3.15
Double chance1X (Aldershot Town or draw)52%1.94
12 (either side)77%1.31
X2 (draw or Tadley Calleva)72%1.39
Handicap -1Tadley Calleva win by 2+28%3.52
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aldershot Town and Tadley Calleva recent form

Aldershot Town 2W 0D 2L
Tadley Calleva 5W 0D 1L

Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Tadley Calleva away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Aldershot Town at home only, Tadley Calleva away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures