Carlisle vs Tamworth: model vs market
| Source | Carlisle | Draw | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Edge | -17% | +3% | +14% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Carlisle vs Tamworth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Carlisle, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 1.48 | 1.48 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.00 |
| Tamworth | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Carlisle and Tamworth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Carlisle / Tamworth)
- 1.16 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Carlisle / Tamworth)
- 1.25 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Carlisle vs Tamworth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Carlisle goals. Columns: Tamworth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Carlisle vs Tamworth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Carlisle vs Tamworth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carlisle | 56% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Tamworth | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Carlisle or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Tamworth) | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Carlisle win by 2+ | 24% | 4.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Carlisle and Tamworth recent form
Carlisle
2W 0D 2L
Tamworth
3W 1D 2L
Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Carlisle vs Tamworth head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Carlisle 1 · draws 0 · Tamworth 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Tamworth | 2-1 | Carlisle | National League |
| 2025-11-29 | Carlisle | 2-1 | Tamworth | National League |
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