Macclesfield vs Anstey Nomads: model vs market
| Source | Macclesfield | Draw | Anstey Nomads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 21% | 20% |
| Edge | -12% | +2% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.51.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Macclesfield vs Anstey Nomads odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Macclesfield, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macclesfield | 1.48 | 1.48 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.00 |
| Anstey Nomads | 5.05 | 5.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Macclesfield and Anstey Nomads expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (Macclesfield / Anstey Nomads)
- 1.36 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Macclesfield / Anstey Nomads)
- 0.78 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Macclesfield vs Anstey Nomads score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Macclesfield goals. Columns: Anstey Nomads goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Macclesfield vs Anstey Nomads goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Macclesfield vs Anstey Nomads
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macclesfield | 58% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Anstey Nomads | 20% | 4.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Macclesfield or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Anstey Nomads) | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Macclesfield win by 2+ | 30% | 3.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Macclesfield and Anstey Nomads recent form
Macclesfield
4W 1D 1L
Anstey Nomads
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Macclesfield at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Anstey Nomads away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Macclesfield at home only, Anstey Nomads away only.
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
- Bury vs Harrogate Town 2026-10-17
- Southend vs Berkhamsted — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Hartlepool v Marine — match page 2026-10-17
- Carlisle vs Tamworth — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Aldershot Town v Tadley Calleva — match page 2026-10-17
- Barrow vs Gloucester City — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Eastleigh vs Brentwood Town 2026-10-17
- Gateshead v Stafford Rangers — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Macclesfield, previous: Scarborough Athletic vs Macclesfield: odds and pick