Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Barrow vs Gloucester City

· Holker Street, Barrow-In-Furness

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Barrow to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

4% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BarrowDrawGloucester City

Barrow vs Gloucester City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBarrowDrawGloucester City
Model14%23%62%
Market67%21%12%
Published53%22%25%
Edge-52%+2%+50%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Barrow vs Gloucester City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Barrow, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.35Now 1.35 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Barrow1.351.35+0.00
Draw4.204.20+0.00
Gloucester City7.507.50+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Barrow and Gloucester City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.83Barrow
1.94Gloucester City
Total expected goals
2.78
Attack rating (Barrow / Gloucester City)
0.69 / 1.06
Defence rating (Barrow / Gloucester City)
1.23 / 0.67

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Barrow vs Gloucester City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 11.1% 11.7% 7.6% 5.8% 1 4.2% 11.1% 9.8% 6.3% 4.8% 2 2.2% 4.2% 4.1% 2.6% 2.0% 3 0.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 4+ 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Barrow goals. Columns: Gloucester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Barrow vs Gloucester City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Barrow vs Gloucester City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Barrow53%1.87
Draw22%4.57
Gloucester City25%4.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.11
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.02
No51%1.98
Double chance1X (Barrow or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Gloucester City)47%2.15
Handicap -1Barrow win by 2+5%21.33
Push (exactly one goal)10%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Barrow and Gloucester City recent form

Barrow 1W 0D 5L
Gloucester City 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gloucester City away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3

League matches this season before kick-off: Barrow at home only, Gloucester City away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures