Hartlepool vs Marine: model vs market
| Source | Hartlepool | Draw | Marine |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Edge | -34% | +2% | +32% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Hartlepool vs Marine odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hartlepool, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | 1.45 | 1.45 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.00 |
| Marine | 5.40 | 5.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hartlepool and Marine expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Hartlepool / Marine)
- 0.83 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Hartlepool / Marine)
- 1.11 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hartlepool vs Marine score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hartlepool goals. Columns: Marine goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hartlepool vs Marine goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hartlepool vs Marine
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hartlepool | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Marine | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hartlepool or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Marine) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hartlepool win by 2+ | 13% | 7.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hartlepool and Marine recent form
Hartlepool
0W 2D 2L
Marine
3W 0D 2L
Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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