Updated

England FA Cup · 4th Round Qualifying

Bury vs Harrogate Town

· Gigg Lane, Bury

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Harrogate Town to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

3% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BuryDrawHarrogate Town

Bury vs Harrogate Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBuryDrawHarrogate Town
Model72%18%10%
Market26%24%49%
Published38%23%39%
Edge+46%-6%-39%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bury vs Harrogate Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Harrogate Town, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.83Now 1.83 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bury3.433.43+0.00
Draw3.703.70+0.00
Harrogate Town1.831.83+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bury and Harrogate Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.43Bury
0.82Harrogate Town
Total expected goals
3.25
Attack rating (Bury / Harrogate Town)
1.64 / 0.81
Defence rating (Bury / Harrogate Town)
0.68 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bury vs Harrogate Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 2.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1 8.6% 8.5% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2 11.4% 9.4% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 9.2% 7.6% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 10.0% 8.2% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2%

Rows: Bury goals. Columns: Harrogate Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bury vs Harrogate Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bury vs Harrogate Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bury38%2.65
Draw23%4.39
Harrogate Town39%2.53
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.71
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.92
No48%2.08
Double chance1X (Bury or draw)61%1.65
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Harrogate Town)62%1.61
Handicap -1Harrogate Town win by 2+3%31.73
Push (exactly one goal)7%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bury and Harrogate Town recent form

Bury 4W 1D 1L
Harrogate Town 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bury at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
5.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3

League matches this season before kick-off: Bury at home only, Harrogate Town away only.

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures